Between 2021 and 2025, 39 major U.S. metropolitan areas shifted from being buyer-friendly to renter-friendly markets, according to new research from InvestorsObserver. The findings indicate that renting has become more affordable than buying in every major metro area nationwide — a reversal without precedent in recent housing cycles.
Nationwide Shift in Housing Affordability
In 2021, most major metros favored homeownership, with 39 of 50 showing negative buy-rent gaps, meaning that buying cost less per month than renting. By 2025, that dynamic reversed completely: all metros now show positive buy-rent gaps, with renting the less expensive option.
Average monthly mortgage payments rose by about 100% or more in many top metros, while rent growth lagged behind. Miami, for example, saw mortgage payments rise 219%, compared with a 40% rent increase. San Francisco experienced a 103% mortgage jump, and Oklahoma City saw a 167% increase. Nationally, the overall buy-rent gap flipped from –7% in 2021 to +53% in 2025.
Markets with the Largest Increases
Ten metro areas recorded the most dramatic shifts in buy-rent gaps from 2021 to 2025:
- San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA: The buy-rent gap rose from 62% to 190.7%, as mortgage payments more than doubled, increasing from $4,383 to $8,882.
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA: The gap climbed from 80% to 185.6%, with mortgage payments rising from $5,175 to $9,438.
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL: The metro flipped from a –0.28% to +63.5% gap, with mortgage payments up 219%.
- Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA: The gap increased from 0.38% to 119.5%, as mortgage costs rose 96%.
- Oklahoma City, OK: The metro shifted from –0.31% to +50.3%, with mortgage payments up 167%.
- Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO: The gap increased from 17% to 96.5%, with mortgage payments nearly doubling.
- Salt Lake City, UT: The gap rose from 20% to 90.4%, with mortgage payments up 88.6%.
- Kansas City, MO-KS: The metro flipped from –12% to +57%, with mortgage payments up 128%.
- Memphis, TN-MS-AR: The gap grew from –36% to +32.8%, as mortgage payments rose 143%.
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX: The gap climbed from 5% to 73.4%, with mortgage payments up 98%.
The Great Flip: From Buying Advantage to Renting Advantage
The research shows that affordability flipped across 39 of the 50 largest U.S. metros, including those previously known for lower housing costs. In 2021, these areas had negative buy-rent gaps — meaning mortgage payments were cheaper than rent — but by 2025, every one turned positive.
The largest reversals occurred in:
- Miami: –28.4% to +63.5%
- Oklahoma City: –30.6% to +50.3%
- Kansas City: –12.0% to +57.0%
Mortgage payments in these metros increased between 128% and 219%, while rent growth remained comparatively moderate.
Broader Implications
The shift affects how millions of Americans budget and plan for housing. In flipped metros, middle-income households face mortgage payments hundreds of dollars higher than rent. The change challenges long-standing assumptions about homeownership as a more stable or wealth-building option.
Many younger or first-time buyers now face barriers to entry, while those who purchased homes before 2022 retain the advantage of lower rates and prices. The data suggests that unless mortgage rates or home prices change substantially, renting may remain the more economical choice in many cities.
Managing Housing Affordability
The report outlines several potential approaches for addressing affordability pressures:
- Exploring alternative mortgage structures such as adjustable-rate or interest-only loans.
- Expanding shared-ownership programs, rent-to-own arrangements, and community land trusts.
- Encouraging local governments and employers to support affordable housing through incentives, subsidies, and down payment assistance.
Renters may also seek to stabilize costs through longer-term leases and invest savings from lower monthly payments elsewhere.
Methodology
The study calculated mortgage payments using Zillow’s median home price data, 30-year fixed mortgage rates, and local property tax rates. Rent data came from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), which tracks typical market-rate rents.
Researchers identified “flipped” markets by isolating metros where:
- The 2021 buy-rent gap was negative (buying was cheaper than renting).
- The 2025 gap was positive (renting was cheaper than buying).
Data sources included Bankrate, Attom Data, Zillow, and Realtor.
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