The latest OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2025, provides an insightful analysis of global economic trends, highlighting resilience in 2024 but signaling headwinds in the years ahead. Below are the key takeaways from the report.

Global Economic Growth: Resilience in 2024, Moderation Ahead

• The global economy demonstrated resilience in 2024, with a solid GDP growth rate of 3.2%, driven by strong expansions in the United States and major emerging-market economies, including China.
• However, indicators suggest a slowdown in global growth, with projections falling to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026.
• Rising trade barriers, geopolitical uncertainties, and tightening financial conditions are expected to weigh on investment and household spending.

Regional Growth Projections: A Slowing Trend

• United States: Growth is projected to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026 as domestic demand moderates.
• Euro Area: GDP growth is expected to remain subdued at 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026 due to heightened uncertainty and weak consumer confidence.
• China: Growth is forecasted to decline from 4.8% in 2024 to 4.4% in 2026, as government incentives wane and external demand fluctuates.
• Canada and Mexico: Economic activity is projected to be hit particularly hard due to increased tariffs with the United States. Canada’s growth is expected to drop to 0.7% in both 2025 and 2026, while Mexico is forecasted to enter a recession with GDP contractions of 1.3% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026.

Trade and Inflation Pressures Persist

• New trade policies, including significant tariff hikes between major economies, could increase inflation and suppress global trade growth.
• Inflationary pressures remain, particularly in the services sector, with core inflation projected to stay above central bank targets in many countries, including the United States.
• Headline inflation in G20 economies is expected to moderate from 3.8% in 2025 to 3.2% in 2026, although trade disruptions and labor market tightness could sustain price pressures.

Labor Markets Remain Strong, but Risks Loom

• Global labor markets remained tight in 2024, with unemployment rates staying below pre-pandemic levels in many countries, including Türkiye, Brazil, Italy, and Spain.
• Wage growth, though easing, remains elevated in some regions, contributing to lingering inflation.
• Real wages in the United States, Brazil, Spain, and the United Kingdom have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, while they remain below pre-pandemic levels in South Africa, Italy, France, and Japan.

Financial Markets and Policy Adjustments

• Global financial conditions have tightened slightly since late 2024, with increased market volatility and higher government bond yields in Europe due to additional planned expenditures on defense and infrastructure.
• While monetary policy easing is expected in some economies, central banks remain cautious amid inflationary pressures and trade disruptions.
• Fiscal discipline is crucial to maintaining debt sustainability, ensuring governments have the flexibility to address future economic shocks.

Policy Recommendations and Future Considerations

• Countries should seek collaborative solutions within the global trading system to minimize economic fragmentation and promote stable growth.
• Structural reforms to enhance labor market flexibility, supply chain resilience, and skills development are essential for long-term economic stability.
• Artificial intelligence adoption and digital infrastructure investments could significantly boost productivity and support economic recovery.

Final Thoughts

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Hailstorms are often overlooked compared to hurricanes and wildfires, but they are proving to be one of the most financially devastating weather events for homeowners and insurers alike. According to a recent Wall Street Journal article, severe convective storms, which include hail, cost insurers $58 billion in the U.S. last year — exceeding all but two hurricanes in recorded history. As a result, insurance premiums are rising, and many homeowners are struggling to find affordable coverage.

Hail Damage: A Costly and Growing Problem

Hail is responsible for the majority of damage from convective storms, which produce strong winds and sometimes tornadoes. Historically, hailstorms primarily impacted open fields and rural areas, but suburban expansion has placed more homes, schools, and businesses in harm’s way. Today, what once landed harmlessly in empty fields now causes extensive damage to roofs, vehicles, and infrastructure.

According to research from Northern Illinois University, climate change is likely contributing to larger hailstones, which increases the potential for destruction. Unlike hurricane-related flooding, which often requires additional policies, hail damage is typically covered by standard homeowners' insurance. However, as claims increase, insurers are raising rates, dropping coverage in high-risk areas, or adjusting policies to minimize payouts.

Rising Insurance Costs and Nonrenewals

The financial burden of hail damage is hitting homeowners in middle America particularly hard. The Wall Street Journal reported that Oklahoma, a state frequently battered by severe hailstorms, is facing skyrocketing insurance costs. In some areas, insurers are refusing to renew policies on homes with roofs older than 11 years. Statewide, nearly 3,400 homeowners lost coverage in 2023, putting Oklahoma in a category similar to wildfire-prone California and hurricane-prone Florida.

This trend isn’t limited to individual households. Businesses, school districts, and municipalities are also facing significant premium hikes. In Norman, Oklahoma, a public school system saw its property insurance costs double in just five years, diverting funds away from educational resources.

Policy Changes That Shift Costs to Homeowners

In response to mounting losses, insurers are changing the way they cover hail damage. Many policies now reduce payouts based on a roof’s age, while others have increased deductibles from a fixed amount to a percentage of the home’s replacement cost. These changes leave many homeowners responsible for a larger share of repair expenses.

Additionally, some policies now only cover the "actual cash value" of a damaged roof rather than the full replacement cost. This means that homeowners with older roofs may receive a payout that doesn’t cover the full cost of repairs, making it difficult to restore their homes after a storm.

The Need for Awareness and Preparedness

With hailstorms becoming more destructive and insurance options becoming more limited, homeowners should take proactive steps to protect their properties. Regular roof maintenance, impact-resistant materials, and understanding insurance policy changes are crucial. In states where insurers are withdrawing, exploring state-backed insurance programs or alternative providers may be necessary.

Hail may not always make headlines like hurricanes or wildfires, but its financial impact is undeniable. As weather patterns shift and insurers adapt, homeowners must stay informed and prepared for the increasing risks posed by these powerful storms.

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Recent federal and state budget reductions are affecting the U.S. food safety system, potentially increasing the risk of foodborne illnesses. Cuts under both the Trump and Biden administrations have impacted food testing, state inspections, and advisory committees focused on preventing outbreaks. These reductions may limit the ability of government agencies to detect and respond to contaminated food, raising concerns among public health experts.

Budget Cuts and Their Impact

• FDA spending freezes: Government credit card spending restrictions have slowed or stopped some routine food safety tests, affecting the detection of bacteria and contaminants in food products.

• State-level reductions: A $34 million FDA budget cut could reduce staffing at state laboratories and limit efforts to remove tainted products from shelves.

• Disbanded advisory committees: The Trump administration recently shut down committees focused on studying bacteria in infant formula and improving outbreak detection. These committees were working on using genomic sequencing and artificial intelligence to enhance food safety efforts.

• Federal inspection shortfalls: The FDA currently employs 443 food safety inspectors, significantly fewer than needed to meet Congress-mandated inspection schedules.

• State food safety programs at risk: State inspectors perform a large percentage of food facility and produce safety inspections. Funding reductions may lead to delays in removing contaminated food from the market.

Concerns from Food Safety Experts

Experts warn that the budget reductions could limit efforts to prevent foodborne outbreaks, leading to increased public health risks. Some scientists have raised concerns that fewer resources will shift food safety efforts from prevention to post-outbreak response.

In past outbreaks, food safety officials successfully identified contaminated products, such as listeria-tainted deli meats and lead-laden applesauce, preventing further illness. However, delays caused by budget constraints could slow future responses, potentially increasing the number of affected individuals.

Outlook and Industry Response

While the Biden administration has launched initiatives to examine food safety risks, such as "Operation Stork Speed" to assess infant formula quality, experts emphasize the need for sufficient funding to maintain effective food safety oversight.

As budget reductions continue, the food safety field is monitoring how these changes affect outbreak detection and prevention efforts. Public health officials and lawmakers have raised concerns that ongoing financial constraints could undermine progress in ensuring the safety of the nation’s food supply.