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Sign Up to Receive Updates Straight to Your InboxInflation May Be Easing, But Claims Severity Pressures in P&C Are Likely to Remain: Swiss Re
According to the Swiss Re Institute, headline inflation is estimated to decline but stay elevated in 2023, to some extent alleviating upward pressure on claims compared to 2022. However, cost inflation in certain prices, such as labour and healthcare, may remain high. These, and non-economic factors like social inflation and more frequent traffic accidents, will likely underpin still-elevated claims, notably in motor and liability. This environment will require P&C insurers to consider continuing underwriting discipline in 2023.
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- We estimate that high inflation alone led to an increase in P&C claims of 5-7.5% in 2022, close to rate rises, but the change in price is not enough to counter the upward pressures from other non-economic factors, in our view.
- We believe inflation has peaked but is likely to remain more persistent in 2023.
- Ongoing elevated prices in certain areas are expected to pressure lines of business in casualty and liability.