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Inflation May Be Easing, But Claims Severity Pressures in P&C Are Likely to Remain: Swiss Re

Inflation May Be Easing, But Claims Severity Pressures in P&C Are Likely to Remain: Swiss Re

According to the Swiss Re Institute, headline inflation is estimated to decline but stay elevated in 2023, to some extent alleviating upward pressure on claims compared to 2022. However, cost inflation in certain prices, such as labour and healthcare, may remain high. These, and non-economic factors like social inflation and more frequent traffic accidents, will likely underpin still-elevated claims, notably in motor and liability. This environment will require P&C insurers to consider continuing underwriting discipline in 2023.
  • We estimate that high inflation alone led to an increase in P&C claims of 5-7.5% in 2022, close to rate rises, but the change in price is not enough to counter the upward pressures from other non-economic factors, in our view.
  • We believe inflation has peaked but is likely to remain more persistent in 2023.
  • Ongoing elevated prices in certain areas are expected to pressure lines of business in casualty and liability.
The high-inflation environment has been expensive for P&C insurers. The losses from Hurricane Ian at the end of 2022 contributed to a worsening of the P&C loss ratio, but the main driver was the sharp increases in economic inflation. We estimate that inflation alone increased/will increase P&C claims costs by 5-7.5% across main five markets in 2022 and 2023 (see Figure 1). And for property, a short-tail business immediately sensitive to inflation impacts and rising construction costs, we estimate a 6-13% increase over the two years, higher than the 5-8% range of registered price increases. We expect P&C claims growth to ease in 2023 alongside moderation in inflation. Coupled with a repricing in loss-making areas during recent primary market renewals, this may alleviate some of last year's underwriting pressure. Still, insurers will need to maintain discipline in pricing, and terms and conditions, as we forecast inflation to continue to impact many claims-relevant price categories, such as labour and medical costs. Prices in these areas typically grow more slowly than in other segments, and they remain elevated. Non-economic factors, such as social inflation and increased loss frequency in motor and property lines, reaffirm that further rate hardening is required to narrow the estimate that all else equal, premium income needed to have risen 13% to offset inflation-driven claims gains in 2022. Property premium income fell short of rising claims costs in Australia, Germany and the UK. We estimate that the average combined ratio in P&C insurance in our profitability analysis of eight major markets rose to 99.3% in 2022 from 96% in 2021, driven mostly by inflation.  In France, the loss ratio in P&C in the third quarter of 2022 was 9 percentage points (ppt) higher year-on-year while in the UK, the loss ratio for motor was up 5.1 ppt in the same period. In the US, the motor physical damage loss ratio reached 84% in 9M22, almost 20 ppt above the annual average of the 10 years before the COVID-19 pandemic. For 2023, we forecast a P&C combined ratio of around 98%, close to the pre-COVID-19 2019 level of 97.7%. Cost increases in construction, which peaked in 2022, should ease but will remain high by historical standards, as building activity is still strong and China's re-opening will increase global demand for commodities. For example, we forecast the producer price index for construction (PPI-C) in the UK to rise by 8% this year, and in the US by 11.4% (see Figure 2). Cost rises in motor vehicle repairs and replacements should ease in key markets (except France, where price increases in inputs such as energy lag other markets), but will still be above pre-pandemic levels. Regarding other inflation drivers, we expect tight labour markets to increase wages (eg, we forecast that wages in the UK will rise by 6.2% this year, more than our 5.5% projection for core CPI) and backlogs of medical procedures to increase healthcare costs, putting pressure on long-tail lines of business in casualty and motor liability. Signals for a market correction had been mounting long before the inflation-driven rise in claims 2022. The underlying claims drivers indicate that higher primary insurance rates are likely. Sustained insurance underwriting discipline will be needed in 2023 to help improve underwriting results.    
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U.S. Investors Sue Credit Suisse for ‘Downplaying’ Impact of Losses

U.S. Investors Sue Credit Suisse for ‘Downplaying’ Impact of Losses

US shareholders are suing Credit Suisse for giving false and misleading public statements and downplaying the impact of its losses, in the latest knock to the beleaguered bank. The Rosen Law Firm, a global investor rights law firm, filed a class action lawsuit in New Jersey against the Swiss banking giant on behalf of investors. It comes in the same week that the lender agreed to borrow up to 50 billion Swiss francs (£45 billion) from the Swiss National Bank, after watching its share price plunge by around 30% on Wednesday. The lawsuit accuses Credit Suisse of making false and misleading public statements, and failing to disclose important information about the volume of customers withdrawing money from the bank late last year. The bank did not disclose that “the sharp increase in customer outflows Credit Suisse began experiencing in October 2022 remained ongoing”, the lawsuit read. It went on: “Accordingly, Credit Suisse had downplayed the impact of the company’s recent series of quarterly losses and risk and compliance failures on liquidity and its ability to retain client funds.” On Tuesday, Credit Suisse admitted in its annual report that it had found “material weaknesses” in its internal controls over financial reporting, meaning it failed to to identify risks it should have. As a result, it concluded that its disclosure controls and procedures at the end of last year were not effective. The bank also revealed that it sustained 123 million Swiss francs (£109 million) in asset outflows over 2022, as customers withdrew funds. It helped drag down the group’s total net loss to 7.3 billion Swiss francs (£6.5 billion) for the year. It admitted it had suffered “reputational harm” from the outflow of deposits and assets under management, which it insisted was concentrated in October last year and had begun to moderate since. But the investors suing Credit Suisse accuse it of overstating its financial position and prospects and downplaying the impact of the losses it incurred. “As a result, the company’s public statements were materially false and misleading at all relevant times”, it concluded. The law firm, which focuses on representing shareholders, said other investors can join the class action by contacting its lawyers. Credit Suisse declined to comment on the lawsuit. Rosen Law Firm filed a lawsuit against the US’s Silicon Valley Bank which collapsed at the end of last week, for misleading shareholders about its susceptibility to a bank run as a result of high interest rates. It is also investigating potential claims on behalf of shareholders of US regional bank First Republic Bank, which saw its share price plunge by more than two thirds during the day on Monday.    
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Outbreak Linked to Eye Drops Leaves 68 Infected, 8 Blind: CDC

Outbreak Linked to Eye Drops Leaves 68 Infected, 8 Blind: CDC

An outbreak linked to eye drops has infected 68 people in Florida and in 16 other states, according to the latest update from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC said it is investigating an outbreak of an extensively drug-resistant strain of Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Health officials said the stain, called VIM-GES-CRPA, had never been reported in the United States prior to the outbreak. “Most patients reported using artificial tears,” the CDC said. “Patients reported over 10 different brands of artificial tears and some patients used multiple brands. EzriCare Artificial Tears, a preservative-free, over-the-counter product packaged in multidose bottles, was the brand most commonly reported. This was the only common artificial tears product identified across the four healthcare facility clusters.” Researchers said opened bottles of EzriCare Artificial Tears from multiple lots contained the VIM-GES-CRPA strain. These bottles were taken from infected and uninfected people in two different states. The CDC said it is still testing unopened bottles to see if they were contaminated during manufacturing. So far, at least one person has died, eight have lost vision, and four have had their eyeballs surgically removed, the CDC said. The CDC recommends clinicians and patients stop using EzriCare or Delsam Pharma’s Artificial Tears products. The Food and Drug Administration said both products have been recalled. It put out separate warnings for customers to immediately stop using the products. According to health officials, those who have used EzriCare or Delsam Pharma’s artificial tears and have signs or symptoms of an eye infection should seek medical care immediately. According to the CDC, eye infection symptoms may include:
  • Yellow, green, or clear discharge from the eye
  • Eye pain or discomfort
  • Redness of the eye or eyelid
  • Feeling of something in your eye (foreign body sensation)
  • Increased sensitivity to light
  • Blurry vision
“At this time, there is no recommendation for testing of patients who have used this product and who are not experiencing any signs or symptoms of infection,” the CDC said. The FDA recently posted recall notices for two other types of eye drops from Pharmedica and Apotex for non-sterility concerns. The drops have not been linked to the VIM-GES-CRPA outbreak.    
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Warren Buffett Talks Banking Crisis with Biden Team

Warren Buffett Talks Banking Crisis with Biden Team

Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s Warren Buffett has been in touch with senior officials in President Joe Biden’s administration in recent days as the regional banking crisis unfolds. There have been multiple conversations between Biden’s team and Buffett in the past week, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. The calls have centered around Buffett possibly investing in the US regional banking sector in some way, but the billionaire has also given advice and guidance more broadly about the current turmoil. Buffett has a long history of stepping in to aid banks in crisis, leveraging his cult investing status and financial heft to restore confidence in ailing firms. Bank of America Corp. won a capital injection from Buffett in 2011 after its stock plunged amid losses tied to subprime mortgages. Buffett also tossed a $5 billion lifeline to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in 2008 to shore up the bank following Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse. Representatives for Berkshire Hathaway and the White House didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Officials at the US Treasury Department declined to comment. US regulators unveiled extraordinary measures to assuage customers last weekend, promising to fully pay out uninsured deposits in the failed banks. Shares in regional banks continued to fall this week on fears the pain would spread. Biden’s team, wary of political blowback, has moved to orchestrate backstops that don’t require direct government spending from taxpayers, including the Federal Reserve’s actions. Big US banks voluntarily deposited $30 billion to stabilize First Republic Bank this week, a move regulators described as “most welcome.” Any investment or intervention from Buffett or other figures would continue that playbook, looking to stem the crisis without direct bailouts.    
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