A new peer-reviewed study has identified approximately 5,500 hazardous facilities along the U.S. coastline that face increasing flood exposure as sea levels rise. The findings, published in Nature Communications, focus on locations where flooding could intersect with sites that store or process potentially hazardous materials.
Researchers analyzed more than 47,600 coastal facilities nationwide and evaluated their exposure to flooding projected for 2050 and 2100. The assessment used a 100-year flood model adjusted for sea level rise. Facilities qualified as hot spots when flooding was projected to occur regularly rather than during rare events.
The study emphasizes that the primary concern is not floodwater alone. Instead, researchers examined how floodwaters could transport materials from industrial and waste-related sites into surrounding areas.
Types of Facilities Identified
The mapped facilities include sewage treatment plants, fossil fuel terminals, refineries, power plants, chemical manufacturing and storage sites, and landfills. Many of these locations store substances that could spread beyond facility boundaries if floodwaters reach storage or processing areas.
For example, flooding at sewage treatment plants could allow bacteria such as E. coli to move into nearby environments. Similarly, flooding at refineries or fuel terminals could mobilize metals, petroleum products, or industrial byproducts. The study does not quantify contamination levels or estimate downstream impacts. It documents the geographic overlap between flood-exposed areas and hazardous-material locations.
Geographic Distribution Along the Coast
The analysis identified clusters of at-risk facilities in seven states. Florida, New Jersey, California, Louisiana, New York, Massachusetts, and Texas have the highest concentrations of sites projected to face flooding.
California ranks fifth among states with the most identified facilities. Researchers note that many of these areas already experience periodic flooding, and projections show increased frequency as sea levels continue to rise.
In total, nearly 3,800 hazardous facilities are projected to face flood risk by as early as 2050, regardless of future climate mitigation efforts.
Repeated Flooding and Exposure Patterns
The study highlights the role of repeated flooding rather than single extreme events. Facilities exposed to frequent flooding may experience multiple inundations over time. Researchers indicate that this pattern could complicate response and remediation efforts, particularly in regions where flooding becomes chronic.
The analysis does not assess infrastructure damage, financial loss, or operational disruption. It focuses on identifying locations where flood exposure overlaps with the presence of hazardous materials.
Community Proximity and Demographic Findings
Researchers also examined the characteristics of communities located near the identified facilities. According to the study, neighborhoods surrounding at-risk sites have higher proportions of renters, households living in poverty, Hispanic residents, linguistically isolated households, seniors, households without access to vehicles, and individuals who are not registered voters.
The study documents these demographic patterns without assigning causation or forecasting outcomes. Researchers note that the findings reflect existing land-use and development patterns along industrialized coastlines.
Research Methodology and Funding
The research team combined federal facility databases with sea level rise projections to develop the national map. The study was led by University of California scientists and received funding support from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Researchers describe the map as a planning and assessment tool intended to support long-term decision-making. It does not serve as a loss model or a forecast of specific incidents. See the map here.
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