The Impact Forecasting division of insurance and reinsurance broker Aon has issued a preliminary estimate for first-quarter 2023 insured global catastrophe losses, putting the total at around US $15 billion and citing severe convective storms as the main driver.
Aon estimates that total economic losses from global natural disasters will reach at least $63 billion in the first quarter of 2023.
The devastating earthquakes in Turkey and Syria are the main contributors to economic losses, accounting for approximately $39.1 billion of the total bill.
According to Aon, the economic loss tally from natural disasters is significantly higher than the median ($38 billion) when compared to the 21st Century baseline ($53 billion).
Global losses to private and public insurance entities are currently estimated to be $15 billion, which is close to the average and median of the previous ten years.
However, Aon warns that potential loss development will almost certainly raise the insured loss figure as well.
In fact, Aon warns that “robust loss development” from the natural disasters and weather catastrophes seen in Q1 2023 is expected to continue throughout the rest of the year.
As is typical, secondary perils accounted for the majority of first-quarter insured catastrophe losses worldwide.
Events in the United States are estimated to have caused 58% of insured losses, with EMEA accounting for 25%.
On March 1-3, a number of larger events occurred, including an earthquake in Turkey and an outbreak of severe convective storm activity in the United States, both of which are expected to result in insured losses exceeding $3 billion, according to Aon.
Aon estimates that the combined insured loss from the Auckland flooding and Cyclone Gabrielle in New Zealand will be close to $2 billion.
Aon currently estimates that $5.4 billion of insured losses are from severe convective storm activity in the United States, a figure that could rise as some of this activity is recent.
Meanwhile, European Windstorms had their least expensive season since the winter season of 1995/1996, according to Aon.
It’s also worth noting that broker BMS Group suggested that total insured losses for severe convective storms in Q1 could increase significantly, with as much as $9.5 billion from that peril alone, which would significantly boost Aon’s figure if that happens.