A new study published in Nature Climate Change reveals alarming projections for millions of residents along the Southeast Atlantic coast, from Norfolk, Virginia, to Miami, Florida. By 2100, a sea level rise of 1 meter could impact over 14 million people and put more than $1 trillion worth of property at risk.
The study, led by Patrick Barnard of the U.S. Geological Survey and co-authored by Manoochehr Shirzaei of Virginia Tech, examined the cumulative effects of multiple climate-driven coastal hazards, including sea level rise, flooding, beach erosion, land subsidence, and rising groundwater. The findings highlight a stark reality: the scale of these interconnected risks is greater than previously anticipated.
Growing Threats from Shallow Groundwater, Flooding, and Erosion
One of the most concerning revelations is the increasing threat posed by shallow groundwater. By the end of the century, as much as 70 percent of the coastal population could be exposed to shallow or emerging groundwater. This is a more significant hazard than daily tidal flooding, potentially impacting infrastructure like roads, buildings, and utilities, with an estimated $1 trillion in property value at risk.
Storm-driven flooding is another critical concern. The research projects that coastal storms and hurricanes will amplify flooding risks significantly, with overland flooding likely affecting up to 50 percent of residents across the region—a threat to $770 billion worth of property.
Additionally, the Southeast Atlantic’s iconic barrier islands and sandy beaches face devastating erosion, with projections estimating a loss of up to 80 percent of these beaches due to rising seas. This erosion, coupled with sinking land (known as subsidence), will make coastal communities even more vulnerable.
Disproportionate Impact on Lower-Income Communities
The study emphasizes that these climate-driven hazards will disproportionately affect lower-income populations. Many of these communities reside in flood-prone areas and are already vulnerable to economic and environmental pressures. By 2100, as much as half the population in these areas could be exposed to multiple hazards, including both groundwater flooding and storm-driven flooding.
“The risk of flooding, compounded by sinking land and beach loss, could displace millions and damage critical infrastructure unless robust adaptation strategies are implemented,” warned Shirzaei, a co-author of the study from Virginia Tech’s Department of Geosciences.
The Need for Holistic Coastal Resilience Strategies
The research underscores the urgent need for a holistic approach to coastal resilience that addresses all climate-driven hazards. According to Shirzaei, “We need to rethink how we plan and build for the future, especially in highly vulnerable coastal regions. By including a wider range of climate hazards in resilience strategies, we can better protect our communities from the compounded effects of sea level rise and extreme weather.”
The study utilized cutting-edge geospatial data and modeling tools, including the Coastal Storm Modeling System, to project the potential impacts of coastal hazards. These state-of-the-art models are essential for informed decision-making and serve as a vital resource for community planners, policymakers, and residents seeking to mitigate risks and prepare for an uncertain future.
As coastal hazards continue to intensify, communities will need robust, well-funded, and scientifically informed strategies to adapt and thrive in the face of climate change’s mounting challenges. The message is clear: action is needed now to safeguard millions of lives and billions of dollars in property value along the Southeast Atlantic coast.