From rapper Flo Rida’s $82 million breach of contract case against an energy drink company to a nearly $1 billion sports car liability award against Mitsubishi, juries across the country in 2023 found corporate defendants liable for over $14.5 billion in “nuclear verdicts.” No company is safe: nearly 50 unique industries faced these cases last year, including chemicals, automobiles, home furnishings, internet services, and electric utilities. In 2023, 89 lawsuits against a corporate defendant resulted in a “nuclear verdict” award – a 15-year high.
Nuclear jury verdicts are those that surpass $10 million. They have increased in both size and number since 2009.1 2
In 2023, the number of these cases increased by 27%. While headlines often focus on what Marathon has dubbed “thermonuclear verdicts” – those greater than $100 million and reaching above $1 billion – companies also face threats from a steadily rising baseline, which is returning to pre-pandemic levels. In 2023, the median nuclear verdict rose to $44 million, up from a low of $21 million in 2020.
While some states are more prone to handing out nuclear verdicts than others, we found that these jury verdicts are happening in courts throughout the country, both rural and urban. In 2023, states with the largest sum of verdicts were Missouri ($4 billion), Texas ($3.7 billion), Pennsylvania ($1.2 billion), and Washington ($1.1 billion). Florida ($492 million), which is historically the #2 state for nuclear verdicts, dropped to #7 in 2023, after Gov. Ron DeSantis signed comprehensive tort reform into law.
Marathon also conducted a review of legislative activity on the issue in 2023. Our research found that at least seven states took up measures to limit the size and scope of verdicts – such as Florida, Iowa, Indiana, and Montana – through bills that would increase transparency in third-party litigation financing, cap liability damages, and more. Marathon also found that at least 11 states took up measures to expand liability in wrongful death cases, and that five enacted them: Maine, Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, and Rhode Island.
Juries are poised to award even more nuclear verdicts in 2024. Following a landmark $1.8 billion antitrust verdict against the National Association of Realtors and two brokerage firms, real estate commission cases are being filed faster than can be counted. Big Tech companies continue to be charged in patent and privacy matters – some pertaining to artificial intelligence – a trend that could be pressuring companies to prefer to settle, rather than risk a trial and billion-dollar verdict. Even in the arts, courts may see an influx of high-stakes litigation. In January 2024, two Madonna fans filed a federal lawsuit against the singer and her promoters – which brought in around $100 million in touring revenue last year – for starting a concert late.
While many factors have influenced this growth, Marathon’s analysis of nuclear verdicts from 2009 to 2022 identified corporate mistrust, social pessimism, erosion of tort reform, and public desensitization to large numbers as among the most important. Our research also found that verdicts are increasingly influenced by shifts in jury pool demographics: in particular, the influx of Millennial and Gen Z jurors. The attitudes and experiences of jurors play crucial roles in predicting verdict outcomes, and studies have shown that Millennials are generally more pro-plaintiff than the prior generation, are less trusting of the average American company, and more highly prioritize ethical matters when considering which brands to trust.
Some observers have also identified trial tactics as contributing to the size of verdicts emerging from juries. These include the “reptile theory” (in which plaintiff lawyers appeal to the emotional part of the brain) and “anchoring” (in which attorneys suggest an extraordinarily large award to a jury so that number becomes “anchored” in their minds). Other attorney tactics include employing the “joinder” practice to claims, linking lawsuits or parties into one case to eschew venue requirements when shopping for a favorable litigation jurisdiction.
A nuclear verdict can cost companies tens or hundreds of millions of dollars, but the reputational impact of headline-grabbing awards can be catastrophic. Tort law firms are increasingly using the media and digital landscape to fuel corporate mistrust and negative headlines to shape perceptions of cases. Studies have shown that in the first few years after the Great Recession, stock prices on the losing end of these verdicts declined on average almost 22% after the jury reached its decision. With the growth of attorney advertising – which now eclipses $1 billion each year – aggressive parties plaster American televisions with ads seeking plaintiffs for mass tort litigation, amplifying denigrating claims and furthering the cycle of nuclear verdicts.
In 2023, 89 lawsuits against a corporate defendant resulted in a “nuclear verdict” award of at least $10 million, while 27 were “thermonuclear,” or more than $100 million. This is the largest number of such cases Marathon has identified in a single year since 2009.
Despite the total sum of nuclear verdicts declining by $4 billion, companies face threats from a steadily rising baseline, which is returning to pre-pandemic levels. In 2023, the median verdict rose to $44 million, up from a low of $21 million in 2020.
Most of these cases were product liability matters (37%), which is in line with historical norms. In 2023, this litigation was marked by a flurry of lawsuits against Bayer AG, which since its acquisition of Monsanto has paid billions to settle claims that plaintiffs who used the glyphosate-based herbicide Roundup were diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.
Verdicts in intellectual property matters declined by 43% from their historical norm, despite juries ordering technology giants like Google ($338 million), Samsung ($303 million), and Cloudera ($240 million) to pay staggering sums in such cases.
A landmark $1.8 billion antitrust verdict against the National Association of Realtors and two brokerage firms (which settled in March 2024 for $418 million) has fueled a rise in real estate commission lawsuits, with cases filed in federal courts in Missouri, California, Texas, New York, and Pennsylvania. Overall, the top states for corporate nuclear verdicts in 2023 were Missouri ($4.1 billion), Texas ($3.7 billion), Pennsylvania ($1.2 billion), and Washington ($1.1 billion).
Lawmakers in several states took major steps to limit large jury verdicts. These range from comprehensive tort reform packages (such as in Florida) to specific measures, such as Iowa’s first-in-the-nation law to legally cap liability damages against trucking companies. Other states – like Indiana and Montana – enacted measures to increase transparency in third-party litigation financing.
At least 11 states considered measures that could lead to even higher verdicts in their courtrooms. Five enacted such measures: Maine (which has not been a historic epicenter for nuclear verdicts), Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, and Rhode Island.