Gallagher Re released its Mortgage Market Report for Q4 2025. The quarterly report reviews the major economic drivers shaping the mortgage market and highlights the performance of credit risk transfer. It also includes an origination quality index derived from Freddie Mac’s ACIS and STACR programs.
Economic indicators from the quarter suggest a supportive environment for mortgage activity. Gross Domestic Product grew by 1.0% during the quarter and rose 2.0% year over year. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.3%. At the same time, personal income per capita climbed to a record $76.3K per household, up $1.8K. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.3%, aligning with levels seen from 2015 through 2018.
Interest rate conditions shifted during the quarter. Treasury yields and mortgage rates declined, which the report links to a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy stance. The Federal Reserve implemented two 25-basis-point rate cuts in the period. However, the report states that future reductions remain uncertain because the Federal Reserve continues to base decisions on incoming data. In addition, a government shutdown delays the release of several key indicators, which adds uncertainty to near-term rate expectations.
On the origination and securitization side, the report notes subdued volumes. Quarterly GSE securitization volumes remained near 10-year lows. Even so, Freddie Mac’s market share stayed steady at more than 50%. The estimated credit risk transfer-eligible share of new securitizations also remained near an all-time high, at roughly 80%. These figures outline the competitive and structural conditions for CRT participation as of 2026.
Home price trends showed modest growth in the quarter. National home prices rose 0.3% during Q4 and increased 1.6% year over year. Looking across states, 44 of 51 states, including Washington, D.C., recorded annual home price appreciation. The report cites a range from a 3.0% decline in Florida to an 8.4% increase in Connecticut. The most substantial annual growth clustered in the Northeast and Midwest.
Overall, Gallagher Re’s Q4 2025 Mortgage Market Report presents an economy with steady income gains and easing rates, alongside low securitization volumes and varied but broadly positive home price movement across most states. The report positions these factors as the key conditions shaping mortgage market performance at the end of 2025.
Get the latest insurance market updates and discover exclusive program opportunities at ProgramBusiness.com.