"This is the most expensive Florida storm since Hurricane Andrew made landfall in 1992," said Tom Larsen, Associate Vice President, Hazard & Risk Management, CoreLogic. "Hurricane Ian will leave an indelible mark on the real estate industry and city infrastructure." Insurers will declare bankruptcy, homeowners will be forced into delinquency, and insurance will become more difficult to obtain in places like Florida."
If forecasts hold true, CoreLogic expects Hurricane Ian to continue wreaking havoc on Florida and possibly South Carolina and Georgia. Residents will face standing water and sewer backups for several days, delaying immediate recovery. Significant infrastructure damage will also make it difficult for local governments to respond.
Hurricane Ian Recovery Implications
With inflation at a 40-year high, interest rates approaching 7%, and labor and materials still in high demand, CoreLogic predicts a slow and difficult recovery. Despite recent legislation aimed at improving infrastructure and resilience, the real estate industry is poised to evolve. "With Hurricane Ian, we're at a crossroads in terms of adapting to today's catastrophe risk environment," Larsen said. "Infrastructure and building codes will evolve to make us more resilient in the face of what will undoubtedly be more historic storms in the near future." We cannot simply rebuild; we must restore in order to be resilient."
According to CoreLogic economists, Florida's real estate market was stronger than average prior to Hurricane Ian. "Florida had one of the highest home equity gains in the country in the second quarter of 2022, with an average of $100,000 in equity per homeowner," said Selma Hepp, interim lead of CoreLogic's Office of the Chief Economist. "Florida also had the highest July home price gains." Gains in equity and record declines in loan-to-value ratios will provide many Florida homeowners with a financial cushion in the event that economic conditions worsen, as is often the case after natural disasters."
More on Hurricane Ian Loss Predictions
The post-landfall estimates below have been updated based on the storm's National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory issued at 8 a.m. PT on September 29. This analysis includes insured loss from residential and commercial property damage, including contents and business interruption, but excludes broader economic loss from the storm. As it moved across the Florida peninsula, Ian was downgraded to a tropical storm. However, flash flooding will be the main concern until the storm reforms over the ocean and has a chance of making another landfall as a hurricane in South Carolina. As a result, CoreLogic will issue flood loss estimates the following week.
Methodology
CoreLogic provides high-resolution location information solutions with hazard and vulnerability views that are consistent with the most recent science for more realistic risk differentiation. This realistic view of risk is made possible by PxPointTM's high-resolution storm surge modeling, which employs a 10m digital elevation model (DEM) and parcel-based geocoding precision. This analysis includes single-family residential structures with fewer than four stories, such as mobile homes, duplexes, manufactured homes, and cabins (among other non-traditional home types). Multifamily housing is also included. This does not mean that there will be no damage to other types of structures, as there may be wind or debris damage that is not included in this release.