Marine Heat Waves and Rapid Intensification Linked to Higher Tropical Cyclone Losses, Study Finds

A new study published April 10, 2026, in Science Advances examines how marine heat waves and rapid intensification interact to increase the destructive power of tropical cyclones worldwide.

The researchers analyzed more than 4 decades of global data and found that 52% of landfalling tropical cyclones occurred during marine heatwave conditions. They also found that storms that rapidly intensified while passing over marine heat waves were associated with 60% more billion-dollar disasters than storms without heat wave influence.

The study defines rapid intensification as an increase of at least 30 knots in maximum sustained winds over 24 hours. Marine heat waves were identified as periods of at least five consecutive days when sea surface temperatures exceeded the local 90th percentile based on a linearly detrended 1991-2020 climatology.

According to the analysis, marine heat waves create favorable conditions for stronger storms by increasing sea surface temperatures and supporting higher potential intensity before landfall. On average, tropical cyclones affected by marine heat waves maintained potential intensity values about 3 to 5.5 meters per second higher than non-marine heat wave storms during the five days before landfall.

The researchers found that the strongest effects appeared in storms that also underwent rapid intensification. These storms maintained wind speeds 5 to 10 knots higher than rapidly intensifying storms without marine heat wave influence during most of the pre-landfall period. In addition, precipitation rates remained 10% to 12% higher from about three days before landfall through one day after landfall.

The study also examined damage outcomes for 789 landfalling tropical cyclones with documented economic losses. Among storms that underwent rapid intensification and were influenced by marine heat waves, 15 of 71 caused more than $10 billion in damage. By comparison, 7 of 45 rapidly intensifying storms without marine heat wave influence exceeded that threshold.

To separate storm intensity from coastal exposure, the authors used propensity score matching with built-up volume as a proxy for development. After controlling for similar exposure levels, storms that underwent rapid intensification during marine heat waves still caused significantly greater damage than comparison groups. For all events, these storms caused 93% more damage than rapidly intensifying storms without marine heat wave influence, and 876% more damage than storms with neither rapid intensification nor marine heat wave conditions. For billion-dollar events alone, the differences remained statistically significant.

The study also identified several factors associated with rapid intensification during marine heat waves. Using an XGBoost machine learning model with SHAP analysis, the researchers found that initial wind speed was the strongest predictor. Other important variables included storm latitude, distance to land, and several marine heat wave characteristics, including mean and peak intensity.

The paper notes that marine heat waves do not necessarily lead to rapid intensification in every case. However, across hundreds of storms, the authors found consistent statistical evidence that marine heat waves are associated with higher wind speeds, heavier precipitation, and greater economic losses, especially when storms intensify rapidly before landfall.