The Biden administration on Thursday issued sweeping new rules that crack down on power-plant pollution and could force many of the country’s coal plants to shutter unless they undertake costly upgrades.
The rules, which will almost certainly be challenged in court, mandate strict controls on carbon-dioxide emissions at existing coal plants and newly built natural-gas plants. They set the stage for a significant infrastructure build-out to capture and dispose of CO2 emitted at such plants in order to comply.
The changes come as the industry juggles the first upswing in power demand in two decades and a shifting generation mix. Solar and wind projects are being added to the grid, and utilities say more gas-fired power plants are needed for reliability and to replace coal. Some utilities say they could need aging coal plants to stay online longer than expected.
Existing gas plants, the backbone of the nation’s power supply, aren’t included in the new rules.
“The electricity industry is central to America’s economic growth and competitiveness. These are the folks who keep the lights on and power our country forward,” said Michael Regan, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency administrator. “At the same time, the power sector is also a major contributor to the pollution that drives climate change and threatens public health.”
The EPA administrator said the new rules will cut 1.4 billion metric tons of carbon-dioxide emissions, roughly equivalent to the power sector’s 2022 emissions, and move the U.S. closer to the Biden administration’s goal of making the electricity sector carbon-free by 2035.
Regan said the new rules will amount to $370 billion in climate and public health net benefits over the next two decades. In 2035, the new rules would prevent approximately 1,200 premature deaths and 870 hospital visits, according to Regan.
Carbon emissions from power plants make up around a quarter of U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions. Vehicles account for the largest source, about 28%. Separate EPA rules issued Thursday will limit pollution from power-plant wastewater, regulate coal ash, and limit air emissions of mercury and other toxic compounds.
Plants operating past 2039 would need to install carbon-capture units before 2032 to comply with the new climate rules, according to EPA officials. A nationwide slowdown in permitting and constructing energy projects will test the utilities’ ability to deploy carbon capture and storage, which is mostly untried on a large scale.
While the administration said the timelines for the power-plant rules would give companies time to comply, National Rural Electric Cooperative Association Chief Executive Jim Matheson called the rules unachievable.
“It undermines electric reliability and poses grave consequences for an already-stressed electric grid,” said Matheson, whose organization represents many smaller utilities that operate coal plants.
Many power executives say that carbon-capture systems are too experimental, unproven and expensive. Environmentalists say that wider use of the technologies will bring costs down and that the rules would help lower emissions in a major industry that has already been shifting to renewables.
Tax credits for carbon capture in the 2022 climate, health and tax law known as the Inflation Reduction Act, combined with the new EPA rule, will spur both innovation and adoption of the technology, according to David Doniger, senior federal strategist at the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group.
“It’s going to cause coal-plant operators who want to keep the plants around to get serious about carbon capture,” Doniger said.
Doniger said utilities raised similar fears in the 1980s about the cost of installing scrubber technology to remove sulfur pollutants that damaged lakes and waterways in the Northeast. The actual cost was less than either industry or the EPA had projected, he said.
The new rules will likely stoke the political debate over regulations designed to fight climate change.
The administration has been pushing through rule changes designed to survive election-year politics. Last month the EPA issued its most stringent rules ever for tailpipe emissions for vehicles, though it handed the auto industry a concession by giving it more time to comply than what had originally been proposed.
Issuing the rules now avoids the threat of a potential congressional change, but they are still likely to end up in court.
Coal plants have struggled financially against natural gas and renewables, and the rules essentially schedule their phaseout, said Daniel Cohan, associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rice University. Most were built before 1990 and would be at least 50 years old by 2040. Their owners would face enormous costs for ongoing maintenance, in addition to the expense of installing a carbon-capture system.
“It’s going to be only really special cases where it would make sense to install this technology,” Cohan said.
The industry would need to remove CO2 before it goes out of smokestacks, build pipelines to transport it and drill wells that could permanently store the carbon dioxide deep underground in rock formations. Such a build-out faces myriad challenges. Not all parts of the country, for example, have the geology required for storage.
Generators in competitive markets are considered unlikely to make the capital investments that would be needed for older plants, but some utilities or electric co-ops in coal-heavy states might do so and pass the costs on to consumers.
The sector could also turn to options such as the use of hydrogen fuel or small modular nuclear reactors, which remain under development in the U.S. The EPA said it is also including flexibility regarding grid reliability and operations during emergencies.
There are only a few examples globally of carbon-capture projects tied to power plants.
In North Dakota, Minnkota Power Cooperative hopes to build a carbon capture and sequestration project at a coal plant. Chief Executive Mac McLennan said the EPA is overestimating the current and future capabilities of the technology and underestimating the time needed to build.
“I have great optimism and confidence that we can figure out how to make technology work to capture CO2 off of a coal plant,” McLennan said. “I have some fundamental concerns just whether and how we affordably and reliably keep the lights on.”
Meanwhile, the coal-mining industry is finding new customers abroad to replace retiring U.S. coal plants. Consol Energy operates three mines in Pennsylvania and one in West Virginia. Chief Executive Jimmy Brock said new export markets took 60% of the 26 million tons of coal that Consol dug last year.
“I think we need to invest in those technologies,” Brock said, referring to carbon capture. “If they don’t, we’ll continue to send our coal overseas.”