North American companies struggled to unlock value from their deals for an eighth consecutive quarter, recording the worst performance of all regions with an underperformance of –6.9 pp. European acquirers ended a run of nine consecutive quarters of positive results by underperforming their regional index by –6.7 pp. Asia Pacific is the only region to have recorded a positive M&A performance, with its dealmakers surpassing their local index by +0.8 pp, ending a run of 10 consecutive negative quarters.
The annual number of deals is expected to fall for the fourth consecutive year, although deal volume was marginally on the rise in Q3 2019 compared to the previous quarter, due to an increase in North America and Asia Pacific transactions. Fifty–nine percent of the 333 deals completed year to date have failed to add value.
“As deal volume continues its annual downward trend, tough conditions and intensifying competition for an ever–shrinking pool of targets further ramp up the stakes for CEOs under pressure from increasingly vocal shareholders,” said Duncan Smithson, senior director, Mergers and Acquisitions, Willis Towers Watson. “Despite this environment, our research shows two of five deals have successfully navigated market volatility, decreasing valuations, and macroeconomic and political uncertainty to outperform the benchmark.”
Based on share price performance, additional findings revealed by the study include:
- Large deals (valued at over $1 billion) had their lowest quarterly volume since 2009 and are on course to have the lowest annual volume since 2013.
- Seven mega deals (value at over $10 billion) closed in Q3 2019, compared to none in the last quarter and five in Q1 2019, although performance on average was weak.
- M&A transactions are taking longer to close, with deals completed in the first nine months of 2019 taking on average 140 days to execute compared with 119 days for the same period in 2018.
“The past 10 years have been relatively good times for dealmakers. But now trade wars, Brexit, weakness in China’s economy and forecasts for slower growth are weighing down sentiment in capital markets, indicating more difficult times ahead,” said Smithson.
“The instinct for dealmakers during the next downturn may be to retreat to the sidelines, with deals often taking longer to close and being more complex. Our experience instead suggests a weak economy should be seen as an opportunity — as well-executed deals rooted in a clear–cut strategic rationale, thorough due diligence and sound financial considerations, create value in both good and challenging economic conditions.”
Willis Towers Watson QDPM Methodology
All analysis is conducted from the perspective of the acquirer.
Share price performance within the quarterly study is measured as a percentage change in share price from six months prior to the announcement date, to the end of the quarter.
All deals where the acquirer owned less than 50% of the shares of the target after the acquisition were removed, hence no minority purchases have been considered. All deals where the acquirer held more than 50% of target shares prior to the acquisition have been removed, hence no remaining purchases have been considered.
Only completed M&A deals with a value of at least $100 million, which meet the study criteria, are included in this research.
Deal data sourced from Refinitiv.
About Willis Towers Watson
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1 MSCI World Index is used as default, unless stated otherwise.