The latest jobs report, released on Friday, revealed a still-volatile labor market, with payrolls increasing by only 199,000 in December, down from 249,000 in November and falling short of expectations of 422,000. It was a fizzling end to a year in which millions of workers left their jobs voluntarily each month.
So, what's in store for 2022, when businesses and employees waiting for a firm return-to-work date must once again juggle their plans? Remote work is already taking the lead as the only safe bet in the face of more unexpected disruptions. Workers have more leverage than ever before, thanks to rising wages, a record number of available job openings, and "the Great Resignation."
Employees are carrying more cards than usual. They have a two-year track record of working from home without a drop in productivity — in fact, many report an increase. Workers want remote options so they can avoid commuting, perform well at home and at work, have more child care flexibility, and reduce ongoing concerns about Covid exposure. Employers must face the consequences.
"The most hesitant to face the new reality will have to endure significant pain to catch up," said Julia Pollak, labor economist for job site ZipRecruiter. "Many barn doors may be closed after the horses have bolted."
According to the site's data analysis, jobs marked as "remote" already receive 300 percent more applicants than jobs marked as "local."
While the remote boom began strongest in the tech sector, which was best positioned and most predisposed to embrace it, it is now spreading to other white-collar office jobs whose employees spend the majority of their day in front of computer screens and on phones.
Now, job postings for hospital administration that state they allow remote work receive 92 percent more applicants. Job postings in human resources that offer permanent remote work attract 70% more applicants.
"The concept of a full return is dead," said Nicholas Bloom, a Stanford University economics professor who studies management practices.
The shift in attitudes can be seen in a survey he's been conducting of employers about their planned number of "post-Covid" work-from-home days. From June 2020 to November 2021, the number of days increased steadily, from 1.4 to more than 2 days per week.
"As the pandemic has dragged on, businesses have become more positive about working from home." "They've adjusted their management, organization, and IT to work more effectively with work-from-home employees," Bloom explained. "Additional return-to-office delays are likely to raise long-term work-from-home levels."
In a statement, Marc Cenedella, CEO of online job search service Ladders, said, "This is an underlying permanent shift that people are not taking seriously enough." "It's the most significant shift in American working and living arrangements since World War II.""
"People can work from anywhere and live anywhere because they can work from anywhere, which will have a fundamental long-term impact on everything from who is on the local PTA to who runs our local towns to how and where we live," he said.
According to data analyzed by Ladders, the number of available permanent remote positions will have doubled from 9% to 18% by the end of 2021. According to the analysis, this could rise to 25% by 2022.
In recent weeks, several organizations that had taken some of the most pro-office stances have softened their stances. Because of rising infection rates, Goldman Sachs, whose CEO has called remote work a "abnormality," instructed its bankers last week to work remotely until January 18. JPMorgan Chase has pushed back its return-to-work date to February 1.
Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman drew widespread attention in June when he told employees he would be "very disappointed" if they were not back in the office by Labor Day. "If you can go to a restaurant in New York City, you can come to the office," he said during a webcast of an investment conference.
Now, as a result of confirmed and suspected Covid exposures, those very New York City restaurants are closing in droves. Gorman's tune has shifted.
"I was wrong on this," he admitted to CNBC last month, as omicron spread across the country. "I thought we'd be out of it by Labor Day, but we're not."
"I think we'll be in it for the majority of next year," Gorman predicted. "Everyone's still finding their way, and then you get the omicron variant; who knows, we'll have pi, theta, and epsilon, and we'll eventually run out of alphabet letters." It is still a problem."
Citigroup, DoorDash, Google, and Uber have all stated that they are "pausing" return-to-work plans until conditions improve.
"No one really knows when offices will return to pre-omicron reopening plans, but most employers are hoping for this to peak sooner rather than later," said William F. Ziebell, CEO of Gallagher's consulting firm's human resources division.
The omicron wave is expected to peak by the end of January and then recede "substantially" by March, according to disease experts.
"I do believe that in places where we are seeing this really steep incline, we may well see a precipitous decline," Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said at a press conference on Friday.
Meanwhile, "remote pressures are building... with the significant number of positive tests, employees infected with the virus, and caregiver challenges such as schools remaining remote," Ziebell explained.
According to the Conference Board, a private research group, companies will have to become more competitive in 2022 in order to attract and retain talent, setting aside 3.9 percent of payroll for wage increases this year.
Corporate landlords are investing in amenities in the hopes of luring workers back from their couches. Among the services available are dry-cleaning pickup, fitness classes, new retail spaces, and on-site child care. Luxury offices are being positioned with more open-air seating and outdoor gathering spaces, as well as Covid-aware design touches.
Employers and managers, above all, are responsible for creating compelling reasons for workers to return, according to human resource experts. Employees want to know that they will have intentional opportunities to connect and collaborate, rather than simply showing up for roll call meetings or being stationed at a desk so their work can be physically monitored.
"Leaders must create a compelling environment that gives employees a reason to return to their workplace and sells them on the benefits of being together in a shared physical space," according to Gallup research.