Misinformation spread by artificial intelligence and extreme weather events ranked highest among global risk concerns, with business leaders expressing a “predominantly negative outlook” for the future, according to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) 2024 Global Risk Report.
The WEF developed the report in collaboration with Marsh McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group, surveying over 1,400 risk experts, policymakers, and business leaders.
The report’s “fairly pessimistic outlook” marks a shift from last year when “there was still some optimism,” said Saadia Zahidi, WEF managing director, during a media briefing on the report. Half of the respondents expressed fears the world stands on the precipice of “fairly severe” consequences in the next two years and nearly 30% fear “catastrophic” risks in that timeframe, she noted.
Looking 10 years in the future, those figures rise to nearly two-thirds of respondents fearing the worst, with climate-related risks rising to the number-one concern for the long-term.
Societal polarization followed misinformation and extreme weather events in the list of short-term risks. Erosion of global cooperation also makes it more challenging for policymakers to prepare for long-term risks. A new risk for this year’s survey, “critical change to Earth systems” came in second on the list of global risks for a 10-year timeframe, followed by biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse.
According to Carolina Klint, chief commercial officer, Europe, at Marsh McLennan, the impact of artificial intelligence and supply chain risks featured significantly in business leaders’ concerns for both the near- and long-term. Both factor into the number-four concern on this year’s short-term list – “cyber insecurity.”
“AI-generated misinformation, cyberattacks, and cyber insecurity have emerged as top risks across all time horizons,” said Klint during the WEF’s media briefing. “And it’s about time, if I may say so, because these risks have not been prominently featured in past years, which I think is surprising given our dependence on technology.”
She added, “Everything we use – water, electricity, the financial system, communications systems — is dependent on the integrity of incredibly complex networked computer systems. Cybersecurity’s not about protecting a computer or protecting a file. It’s actually about making sure supply chains work and society as a whole is up and running.”
AI offers a host of new opportunities, but businesses need to understand the societal, economic and security implications of its use, Klint noted. AI also has the potential to make cybercriminals more effective.
“You don’t even have to be smart nowadays to be a successful cybercriminal,” said Klint. That said, AI could also improve cyber event responses and assist organizations in preventing events by automating the patching of cybersecurity vulnerabilities or other cyber hygiene processes, she said.
Rounding out the top 10 for short-term risks in terms of severity of impact were: interstate armed conflict; lack of economic opportunity; inflation; involuntary migration; economic downturn; and pollution. For the 10-year timeframe, respondents cited: natural resource shortages; misinformation and disinformation; adverse outcomes of AI technologies; involuntary migration; cyber insecurity; societal polarization; and pollution.
The challenges facing today’s “fragmented and in flux” world might seem insurmountable, but there’s some good news, according to John Scott, head of sustainability risk for Zurich Insurance Group.
“The good news is there are other ways of managing global risks and we’ve been using them for quite some time,” Scott said during the media briefing. “And they’re really about local strategies, about international approaches, about collaboration, and about international cooperation.”
He cited climate change and the physical consequences of a warming climate including floods and windstorms, droughts and wildfires. Building up defenses and boosting resilience to these risks is an “intensely local action.”
“Known risks are intensifying and new risks are emerging – yet they also provide opportunities,” he said. “Collective and coordinated cross-border actions play their part, but localized strategies are critical for reducing the impact of global risks. The individual actions of citizens, companies and countries can move the needle on global risk reduction, contributing to a brighter, safer world.”