Texas continues to lead the nation in flood-related deaths, driven by its geography, population density, and vast size. Even before the recent Central Texas floods that claimed more than 100 lives, the state had long been the deadliest for flooding in the United States.
Historical Data Highlights the Risk
A 2021 study published in the journal Water reported that from 1959 to 2019, Texas accounted for 1,069 flood-related deaths. This represents nearly one-fifth of the total 5,724 fatalities from flooding across the Lower 48 states during that time. Louisiana ranked second, with approximately 370 fewer deaths than Texas.
Nationally, flooding is the second leading weather-related cause of death in the U.S., following heat. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), flooding caused an average of 145 deaths annually over the past decade, both in 2024 and across the past 30 years.
Recent Central Texas Flooding
Earlier this month, flash floods swept through Central Texas, resulting in more than 100 fatalities. In a separate incident in San Antonio last month, 13 people died after heavy flooding, including 11 individuals who drove into high water.
Hatim Sharif, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Texas at San Antonio, noted that better integration of emergency action plans could have saved lives. Sharif advocates for systems that combine rainfall forecasts with real-time flood impact predictions, enabling officials to close vulnerable intersections and alert residents in advance.
Geography and Terrain Amplify Flood Risks
Texas’ unique terrain contributes significantly to its flood risks. The area known as “flash flood alley,” which includes the Texas Hill Country, is prone to rapid flooding due to steep hills and valleys.
Kate Abshire, lead for NOAA’s flash flood services, explained that hilly terrain produces rapid runoff and quick stream rises. Rocky and clay-heavy soils also worsen flooding, as they prevent water from absorbing into the ground. Urban development exacerbates these conditions, with concrete and asphalt surfaces reducing natural infiltration.
In addition to the terrain, the proximity to the Gulf of Mexico provides a constant source of moisture, intensifying rainfall and flood potential. Jeff Masters, a former government meteorologist and co-founder of Weather Underground, pointed out that the warm Gulf waters often fuel extreme precipitation events in the region.
Preventable Driving-Related Deaths
Sharif’s research highlights that 86% of flood-related deaths since 1959 involved individuals who were driving or walking into floodwaters. Nearly 58% of fatalities occurred in cars and trucks.
Texas has over 3,000 low-water crossings where roads intersect with streams and waterways without bridges or culverts, creating additional hazards. Many drivers, especially those in large vehicles like trucks and SUVs, underestimate the depth and speed of floodwaters, particularly at night.
Despite the widely promoted safety message, “Turn around, don’t drown,” studies show some motorists bypass barricades on flooded roads.
The recent July 4 floods were unusual in that many of the deaths occurred at a campsite where floodwaters overtook the victims. Historically, only 8% of flood fatalities have taken place in permanent homes, mobile homes, or camping areas.
Timing and Demographics
Flood deaths are more likely to occur at night, when visibility is low and residents may be unaware of warnings. Over half of flood-related fatalities since 1959 have happened during nighttime hours.
Demographically, about 62% of U.S. flood victims have been male. According to Sharif, this may reflect higher risk-taking behaviors, similar to patterns seen in fatal car accidents.
Continuing Calls for Action
Experts continue to call for improved flood warning systems and public education to reduce preventable deaths. Enhanced forecasting and real-time alerts could give communities critical time to react during flash flood events.
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