AXIS Capital Estimates Up to $120M in Hurricane Michael Losses

Bermudian reinsurance group AXIS Capital has released a preliminary pre-tax loss estimate for losses related to Hurricane Michael in the fourth quarter, which it puts in the range of $100 million to $120 million.

Source: Reinsurance News - Matt Sheehan | Published on November 9, 2018

Huge hurricane between Florida and Cuba. Elements of this image furnished by NASA

AXIS said that its estimate was consistent with industry insured losses of approximately $10 billion.

This compares with the recent industry loss estimate from Aon, whose Impact Forecasting team yesterday said that re/insurers were likely to absorb at least $8 billion of Hurricane Michael losses, which will have a total economic impact in excess of $15 billion.

Category 4 Hurricane Michael made landfall in the Florida Panhandle on October 10th as the strongest tropical cyclone on record to strike the region and the fourth strongest hurricane to make landfall on the U.S mainland.

AXIS’ loss range also compares with individual company loss estimates of up to $550 million for Berkshire Hathaway, $500 million for AIG, $175 million for Zurich and $120 million for Progressive.

The company stipulated that its loss estimate was net of estimated recoveries from reinsurance and retrocessional covers and includes the impact of estimated reinstatement premiums.

It added that the estimate was based on its ground-up assessment of losses from individual contracts and treaties exposed to the affected regions, including preliminary information from clients, brokers and loss adjustors.

Industry insured loss estimates, market share analyses and catastrophe modelling analyses were also taken into account where appropriate, AXIS said.

“Due to the nature of this event, including the complexity of loss assessment, factors contributing to the losses and the preliminary nature of the information available to prepare this estimate, the actual net ultimate amount of losses for this event may be materially different from this current estimate,” a statement from the company read.