A new report from the Capgemini Research Institute outlines how the world’s aging population will significantly reshape the global property and casualty (P&C) insurance industry by 2050. The World Property and Casualty Insurance Report 2025 highlights key demographic, economic, and technological changes expected to drive a transformation in both commercial and personal insurance markets.
Aging Population Alters Dependency Ratios and Consumer Behavior
According to the report, the global dependency ratio — the number of seniors per 100 working-age people — is projected to increase from 16% in 2024 to 26% by 2050. Outside of Africa, which maintains a younger demographic profile, the ratio is expected to climb from 18% to 31%.
This demographic shift is expected to bring changes in consumer behavior. Many aging consumers are anticipated to prioritize spending on experiences such as travel, luxury goods, and home improvements over larger fixed investments like purchasing new or larger homes. The report notes that 45% of consumers plan to increase spending on lifestyle enhancements, while 70% do not intend to invest in additional or larger housing.
Insurance Industry Implications
The shift in behavior and demographics is expected to drive changes across both personal and commercial insurance lines. Auto insurers may need to pivot toward shared mobility and commercial coverage, reflecting decreased driving rates among seniors. Personal property insurance may evolve to support preventive solutions tailored for smaller, multi-generational households.
Commercial insurance is also expected to adapt as aging workforces lead to increased automation, altering workplace risk profiles. These demographic shifts are part of a broader trend contributing to a forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% for global commercial insurance and 3.3% for personal insurance lines by 2050.
Interconnected Risks and Climate Change
The report also highlights growing exposure to climate-related risks. Research from Oxford Economics, cited in the report, indicates that 98.5% of the global population will be exposed to drought and 80% to excessive rainfall. Combined with urbanization and demographic trends, these environmental factors are expected to drive more interconnected risks, increasing the potential for losses.
Insurers are urged to integrate climate risk data and predictive analytics into their risk assessment models to better manage this increasing complexity.
Technology and Underwriting Readiness
Although 88% of insurers acknowledge the need for more technologically advanced underwriting, only 17% report having mature capabilities to support this. To address the growing demands of a changing market, the report recommends several strategic initiatives:
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Behavior-centric planning: Adjusting service models and geographic footprints to align with aging populations
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Modernized operations: Upgrading data systems and integrating AI to increase resilience and efficiency
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Enhanced risk governance: Utilizing predictive underwriting and dynamic portfolio management
The report emphasizes that meeting these challenges will require a coordinated effort involving both medium-term operational improvements and long-term strategic planning by industry leaders.
Report Methodology
The findings are based on three primary data sources:
- Global Voice of the Customer Survey: 5,016 P&C insurance customers across 13 countries
- Global Insurance Executives’ Survey: Interviews with 274 senior insurance executives from 15 markets
- Global Macroeconomic Forecasts: Insights from 11 global markets, developed in collaboration with a leading macro forecaster
Full Report and Additional Information
To access the full World Property and Casualty Insurance Report 2025, visit Capgemini Research Institute.
Capgemini, with more than 340,000 team members in over 50 countries, continues to provide insights into digital and sustainable transformation across industries. The Capgemini Research Institute has been recognized multiple times for the quality of its research.
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