According to a new study from Yardi Matrix, fully affordable housing properties across the United States are backed by $116.1 billion in total debt. A significant portion of this debt is approaching maturity within the next several years, with $10.5 billion due by 2027 and $21.7 billion scheduled to mature by 2030.
Loan Composition and Lender Types
Commercial banks currently hold a substantial share of the short-term debt, largely due to their role in issuing construction notes. These loans account for 69.1 percent of the debt maturing by 2027. However, their share decreases to 46.5 percent of the total debt maturing by 2030.
Other contributors to the loan pool include CMBS lenders — such as pooled Freddie Mac securitizations — which make up 15.8 percent of the debt maturing through 2027. Government entities, including HUD, local governments, and single-asset Fannie Mae notes, represent 9.6 percent of the total.
Ownership Breakdown
The Yardi Matrix report tracks approximately 26,000 fully affordable properties. Private owners hold the majority of this portfolio at 75.3 percent, followed by non-governmental organizations at 15.6 percent. Public housing authorities account for 5.9 percent, while REITs represent 3.2 percent.
Top Markets by Debt Volume
Approximately 40 percent of the $116.1 billion in total debt is concentrated within the top 10 U.S. metropolitan areas. San Francisco leads with $6.8 billion, followed by Los Angeles ($5.8 billion), Washington, D.C. ($5.5 billion), Miami ($4.9 billion), and Seattle ($4.2 billion). Denver and Dallas each have $4.1 billion in debt volume.
Performance and Market Considerations
Affordable housing loans show greater stability compared to market-rate housing debt. Factors such as longer loan terms, lower interest rates, and steady property performance contribute to low delinquency rates.
Nonetheless, rising expenses and development costs may require sponsors to layer various funding sources, including tax credits, soft capital, mezzanine debt, and preferred equity. This complex capital structure may involve multiple lenders and stakeholders, increasing the potential for negotiation challenges.
Additionally, shifts in government policy could impact the sector. Changes to renter subsidy programs may affect cash flow at supported properties, while adjustments in HUD funding could influence loan servicing, development, and property management.
The data and trends presented in the Yardi Matrix report provide a detailed look at the current and projected landscape of affordable housing finance in the U.S. through 2030.
Based on the May 2025 Yardi Matrix Report
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