A new study analyzing data from over 37 million Americans reports a link between Medicaid coverage and reduced mortality risk. The findings arrive amid congressional discussions over potential reductions to the Medicaid program, which currently serves more than 71 million low-income or disabled individuals.
Key Findings from the Study
The study, published as a working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research, found that poor adults who gained Medicaid coverage after the Affordable Care Act (ACA) expanded eligibility were 21% less likely to die in a given year than those who remained uninsured. The analysis covered a broad demographic, including younger adults in their 20s and 30s, a group often not previously eligible for Medicaid.
The research attributes 27,000 fewer deaths since 2010 to Medicaid expansion. Approximately 29% of those whose lives were saved were younger adults. According to the authors, nearly half of the life years saved occurred within this age group.
Cost Comparison with Other Health Interventions
According to the study, the average cost to Medicaid for saving a year of life was estimated at $179,000. This figure is comparable to costs associated with other medical interventions such as cervical cancer screenings and leukemia treatments. The cost was also noted to be less than that of some public safety measures, such as vehicle safety inspections and asbestos removal.
Context and Methodology
The study’s authors used federal records to link tax data, death certificates, and Medicaid enrollment information, allowing for a comprehensive view of the program’s impact. The findings are presented as more statistically robust than prior research, which typically involved smaller sample sizes and focused on older or sicker populations.
Previous studies — such as the RAND Health Insurance Experiment and Oregon’s Medicaid lottery analysis — had shown mixed results, partly due to limited sample sizes or short follow-up periods. The new research includes a broader population and a larger data set, enabling the measurement of rare outcomes like death rates with greater accuracy.
Broader Considerations
The authors acknowledged the study’s limitations. They noted that Medicaid alone would only reduce health disparities between low- and high-income individuals by an estimated 5% to 20%, as other factors — including exposure to environmental risks and social determinants of health — also play a significant role in life expectancy.
The study did not identify specific treatments responsible for the observed reduction in mortality. However, it noted that access to preventive medications, mental health services, and treatments for common causes of death, such as drug overdose, suicide, cancer, and heart disease, may be among the contributing factors.
Conclusion
The study offers new data on the association between Medicaid coverage and mortality, highlighting changes observed after the ACA’s expansion of eligibility. It provides a cost comparison with other life-saving interventions and adds to the existing body of research on health insurance outcomes. As Congress considers changes to Medicaid funding, this study may serve as a point of reference for evaluating the program’s impact.
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