"The evidence is now beyond a reasonable doubt," said Scott Anderson of Wells Fargo & Co.
More than 70% or the 51 respondents said in a survey that the economy is in recession.
This is reinforced by the Commerce Department's announcement yesterday that retail sales fell 0.6% in February; sales excluding the volatile auto and auto-parts categories fell 0.2%. The declines reflect a sharp slowdown in consumer spending, which accounts for more than 70% of U.S. economic activity, as Americans grapple with high gasoline and food costs and declines in home values and other asset prices.
The survey marked a significant shift toward pessimism from the previous survey, conducted five weeks earlier. The economists now expect non-farm payrolls to grow by an average of just 9,000 jobs a month for the next 12 months -- down from a previously expected 48,500. Twenty economists expect payrolls to shrink outright. On average, the economists predicted the unemployment rate will be 5.5% in December, up from the current 4.8%.
Last Friday's employment report, which showed a loss of 63,000 jobs in February, the second consecutive monthly decline, further underscored the pessimism. Twenty-nine of 55 respondents said they expect the economy to contract in the current quarter, and 25 expect it to do so in the second.